Manufacturing data a mixed bag
China’s manufacturers had a mixed performance in March with state-owned companies reporting the first rebound in four months while private firms saw their business plunge to an eight-month low, two separate surveys showed Tuesday.
It was not a surprise that the survey results were divergent, analysts said, generalizing that China’s economy remained on the soft side since the rebound was so limited in scale.
The official Purchasing Managers’ Index, a comprehensive gauge of operating conditions in China’s state-owned industrial companies, ticked up to 50.3 in March from 50.2 a month earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.
A reading above 50 means expansion, and the latest rate was the first increase since November.
The components showed that production edged up to 52.7 in March from February’s 52.6, while new orders rose 0.1 point to 50.6, and employment gained 0.3 points to 48.3. Input prices lost 3.3 points to 44.4, indicating little inflationary pressure for the future.
Zhao Qinghe, an analyst with the bureau, said the indices indicated a stabilizing industrial sector in the world’s second-largest economy.
“Chinese manufacturers resumed their businesses after the Spring Festival holiday, which helped push up the official PMI,” Zhao said. “The warming-up demand in external markets also bolstered the headline index, with new export orders returning to growth for the first time since December.”
However, the HSBC PMI, which gauges conditions at mostly private and export-oriented manufacturers, fell to 48 in March, an eight-month low that was down from 48.5 in February.
It marked the third straight month that the HSBC PMI pointed to contracting activities.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC Holdings Plc, said the latest deterioration was the strongest since July 2013.
“It confirmed the weakness of domestic demand conditions,” Qu said. “This implies that the first-quarter economic growth is likely to fall below the annual target of 7.5 percent.”
Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co, said China’s activities were on the soft side even through the official PMI staged a slight rebound. “The increase in the official PMI was so weak that it can’t defy the economic slowdown which was evident in many sectors.”