Investing in China worth the time, risk
Burton Malkiel, author of the classic investment book A Random Walk Down Wall Street (W.W. Norton), long has been a proponent of investing in China.
“The transformation of China is the economic miracle of the twenty-first century,” Malkiel says in his 2008 book, From Wall Street to the Great Wall (W.W. Norton).
“The pace of growth is so rapid that it takes less than a year for China to build a new city equivalent to the size of Houston. China is now central to the world commerce; and even if its growth rate slows, it will be the largest economy in the world by the 2020s, as measured in terms of purchasing power.”
That’s a mighty strong statement from the Princeton University professor. There may be good reason for his love of China. Malkiel is chief investment officer for AlphaShares LLC, a Walnut Creek, Calif., investment firm dedicated to providing investors with strategies and products to participate in China’s fast-growing economy.
Nevertheless, don’t bet the ranch on Chinese stocks and bonds. The region is riddled with political foreign currency and market risks because Chinese stocks are thinly traded. In addition, there are concerns about accurate accounting statements from both private and government-run Chinese companies. An investment in China requires patience over the long term.
Lately, China’s growth has been weakening. Chinese stocks were down around 1 percent this year, but they lost 50 percent in 2008, according to Morningstar Inc., Chicago. If you had bought and held Chinese stocks over the past 15 years, your investment would have grown at a 7.3 percent annual rate.
“Chinese (stocks) had a rough two years,” says Morningstar analyst Pat Oey. “China is facing a new normal: weak external demand for exports and slowing infrastructure spending.”
Good time to buy?
“We find the growth of domestic consumption to be very compelling,” says Greg Walker, J.P. Morgan Private Bank global investment specialist in Palm Beach. “It’s very hard to buy Chinese (stocks) and not get exposure to the mature government-owned industries, like banks, energy companies and insurance companies.”
Plus, Walker says, “there are a number of markets and economies in the Asian Pacific rim that benefit from China’s growth.” Singapore, Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia, he says, provide opportunities. Walker expects better earnings growth of around 10 percent in China this year.
Malkiel, in his book, suggests how much to invest in Chinese investments.
He advises conservative investors to keep about 5 percent to 10 percent for their total holdings in Chinese investments. The more venturesome should have between 10 percent and 20 percent.
The best way to invest in China, Malkiel says, is through exchange-traded funds. Exchange-traded funds generally are low cost, although you’ll often pay a brokerage commission to trade them. You also can hedge your bets with short sales.
Malkiel, whose company licenses exchange-traded-fund indexes, has suggested that half of your Chinese stock holdings be invested in China company shares traded in Hong Kong or New York. The other half should be in China’s major trading partners, excluding the United States. About 10 percent of this half of your investments should be in commodities and gold — the favorite savings vehicle in China.