Getting a grip on labor
A comprehensive survey of labor to be launched by national statistic authorities this year is badly needed to replace the current unemployment data that covers only urban residents.
As the deepening global financial crisis and domestic economic woes tightens the employment prospects of millions of migrant workers and college graduates alike, the narrowly defined urban-registered unemployment rate can no longer provide the accurate information needed by policy makers.
Though the Chinese economy significantly slowed down later last year, the official unemployment rate released quarterly by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security showed only a mild climb from 4.0 percent a year to 4.2 by the end of 2008, with the number of registered jobless urbanities standing at 8.86 million.
Compared with the 11.13 million urban jobs that the country created last year, such a 0.2 percent increase in unemployment did not really deliver a sense of urgency.
It was only when another government survey revealed that 20 million migrant workers lost their jobs before the Chinese lunar new year that the country was awakened to a grave reality.
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security recently estimated that the urban unemployment rate could reach 4.6 percent this year, the worst since 1980. But that figure is obviously far from enough to highlight the severity of unemployment pressure.
On one hand, salaries of migrant workers contributed about 40 percent of rural families’ income, so their job losses will make a huge dent in farmers’ income growth.
On the other hand, some 7.1 million university graduates, too, are expected to have a hard time this year as the number of new jobs falls in cities.
The Chinese authorities have urged governments at all levels to make every possible effort to expand employment.
Nevertheless, if they want to come up with adequate policy responses, they first need to have a firm grip on the problem they’re trying to address.
Therefore, statistical officials should do their utmost to ensure the success of the comprehensive survey of the labor force that they will conduct in four municipalities and more than 20 provincial capitals this year before extending it to the whole country in 2010.