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China’s e-tail Explosion.

Almost overnight, China has become the world’s second largest online retail (e-tail) market; revenue estimates for 2012 run as high as $210 billion with a compound annual growth rate of 120 percent since 2003.

At the same time, the compound annual growth in Brazil was 34 percent, and in the United States, 17 percent. These statistics are among the key findings of “China’s e-tail Revolution: Online Shopping as a Catalyst for Growth”, a new report by the McKinsey Global Institute.

China’s retail sector already is among the most wired anywhere. Online sales accounted for about 5 to 6 percent of the country’s total retail sales in 2012, compared with 5 percent in the United States. In fact, by the year 2020, it “could potentially lift China’s private consumption by an additional 4 to 7 percent. Here’s why: at 129 million (in 2011), China has the world’s largest online population, surpassing the US’s 81 million by a remarkable 59.3 percent.

In point of fact, most (about 90 percent) of Chinese e-tailing happens on digital marketplaces, megasites similar to eBay or Amazon. “These megasites include PaiPai, Taobao, and Tmall, which in turn are owned by bigger e-commerce groups. “Moreover Chinese e-tailing is not just replacing traditional retail transactions, but it is also stimulating consumption that would not otherwise take place. That stimulus is “the lift” referred to in the previous paragraph.

Although still in the early stages of growth, China’s e-tail ecosystem is already quite profitable, realizing margins of around 8 to 10 percent of earnings, before interest, taxes, and amortization—slightly higher than those of average physical retailers.

Contrasting what’s happening in China is the online retail in the US, Europe, and Japan. There, the dominant model involves a more even combination of brick-and-mortar retailers (such as Best Buy, Carrefour, Darty, Dixons, and Wal-mart) and online merchants (such as Amazon and eBay), which run their own sites and handle the details of commerce.

With this kind of explosive growth, China’s e-tail business is poised for continued exponential growth. The biggest challenge the megasites will face will be staffing. China is already having serious shortages of skilled personnel. US companies with the right products have an extraordinary marketing opportunity.

HKMA staff to get 4.5pc pay increase

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will give its staff a pay rise of 4.5 per cent this year – slightly more than the market average but less than that at the Securities and Futures Commission.

The city’s de facto central bank announced all its staff would get a general increase of 4.5 per cent of their fixed salary, while 0.8 per cent was being set aside to reward good performers, with the increases for individual staff depending on performance.

The annual pay rise is effective from the HKMA’s new financial year, which started on April 1.

Variable pay, equivalent to a bonus at private firms, averaging about 2.7 months’ salary will be paid to staff according to their performance last year.

The HKMA’s pay rise is in line with the 4.5 per cent inflation forecast by the government for Hong Kong this year.

It is, however, below the average pay rise of 5.5 per cent budgeted at the Securities and Futures Commission.

The HKMA’s pay rise is higher than the 4.1 per cent given this year at 93 companies in nine industries surveyed by the Employers’ Federation of Hong Kong in January.

Banks and financial services companies, which are regulated by the HKMA, awarded an average pay increase of 2.5 per cent.

Employees in property and construction got 5 per cent, the survey showed.

The HKMA’s pay rise was determined by Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah, who took into account a review by the governance subcommittee of the Exchange Fund Advisory Committee, market surveys of pay, as well as input from human resources consultants.

Expats rank attractive Chinese cities

Results of the 2012 Amazing China – The Most Attractive Chinese Cities for Foreigners survey were released. Expats chose Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and others as China’s 10 most attractive cities for foreigners.

The cities that made the top 10 list are: Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Kunming, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Tianjin, Xiamen and Qingdao.

Launched in September 2012, the voting invited 175,400 expats over the past year to appraise their favorite Chinese cities, and 1,050 have been polled for their opinions on four categories: policy, administration, working and living environments.

The expats polled in the survey conducted by International Talent Magazine include Chinese Friendship Award recipients, foreign scholars and scientists selected for the Recruitment Program of Global Experts, and other foreign professionals working in China. Those polled suggested many ways for Chinese cities to become more appealing destinations for global professionals.

*Shanghai*

“My impression is that essentially everywhere in China people are very friendly and helpful and medical care is perfect for foreigners, natural environment is great and its protection is well recognized as a major task today for the future. So, every one of those 49 cities should have been mentioned essentially for every category.

The main future task for China is probably coping with migration, and improving life andschooling in the countryside. But also this you know very well.” — German mathematician Andreas Dress

*Beijing*

“It’s pretty easy for foreigners to live in a nice city, and the people in China are very friendly. I am enjoying my life in Beijing.” —Former NBA player Stephon Marbury

*Shenzhen*

“Shenzhen government has been very productive about attracting, retaining and supporting foreign talent, more so than elsewhere I have seen in China.

The social and environmental infrastructure in Shenzhen is very attractive to foreigners. Transportation links and the proximity to Hong Kong are also most valuable.” —British financial expert Richard David Jackson

*Suzhou*

“Since modernization started in China, Suzhou’s local government has been putting a great emphasis on investment, scientific research and other development projects.

Technology and Innovation park’s traffic is convenient, the park is close to Shang-hai. Its environment is good, clean, quiet, which is suitable for the development of the company.

Local residents are industrious and sincere, moreover, local government can timely care about our development, timely solve our difficulties in any side.” —Russian physician Teplukhin Vladimir

*Kunming*

“The city is well managed by the local government, and they are concentrating on making it a better city for all its citizens, including foreigners.” —New Zealand garden manager Lewis William Dagger

*Hangzhou*

“Hangzhou people are simple, friendly and kind. Hangzhou government at all levels is very practical and diligent. They respect knowledge, talent and creation.” —German expert Bruno Klaus Filter

*Nanjing*

“Nanjing?from my first visit in 1987 , to now in 2012 has developed into a cosmopolitan city while maintaining Chinese culture and charm.” — American expert Bikram S. Gill

*Tianjin*

“Tianjin, as a famous city, is historical, cultured, environmental, and most important city, which is very suitable to live in. I love Tianjin and regard Tianjin as my second hometown, and I will spread propaganda for Tianjin. I love Tianjin, wish a bright future for Tianjin, and wish happiness for the people of Tianjin.” — Russian expert Eugeny Kaspersky

*Xiamen*

“I think Xiamen is one of the most attractive cities for foreigners who work in China. The city is very nice and wonderful, and this place is a very safe place for foreigners and their families.” —South Korean engineer Won Ho Moon

*Qingdao*

“Qingdao City possesses a very good, quick-developing infrastructure, which combine with a beautiful architecture landscape ensemble and nature color.

I can see Qingdao City as a fine place for realization of creative projects, business, rest.” —Russian expert Vladimir Kabanov

General labor shortage hits China

Recruitment for general laborers has become tight for factories in East China’s coastal areas, according to a report by Economic Information Daily.

Visits to industrial parks in Shanghai and recruitment sites in Baoshan, Jiading and Zhabei district found that the market demand for skilled workers can be satisfied after the Spring Festival, but it is very difficult to get general laborers.

“We need about 20 workers, and the salary we offer is quite competitive even for low-level workers. Not until the recruitment is half through, we have got all the technical workers we need, while over half of the general workers we need are still lacking,” said Jin Tao from the Human Resources Department of Shanghai Shuanggang Warehouse Co. “Low requirements in skills and harder work for assembly-line positions make it less attractive to the new generation of migrant workers.”

Demand for proficient workers at production lines is highest for enterprises, according to a survey by local labor and human resource departments.

“In order to get people, companies had to give intermediaries 500 yuan in fees every time they introduced a worker,” said Xu Jiangao, director of labor and social security center at Shanghai Xinzhuang Industrial Park.

New generations of migrant workers in pursuit of decent employment, the narrowing wage gap between east coast and the central and west regions, and the soaring commodity prices on the east coast all contribute to recruitment difficulties.
Compared with the first generation of migrant workers, employment expectations of the new generation have increased. In addition to remuneration, they pay more attention to the quality of employment, life experience and the realization of life values.

Wang Yong, of Guizhou, who came to Shanghai, wants to find a job that is technological, challenging and promising. “My first choice is administration work, and then technological work. General workers have no prospect for my career, I won’t be such a worker anymore.”

Due to the higher cost of living in economically developed areas, performance ratio of income and expenditure compared to the central and western regions seems lower, which makes it less attractive to low-skilled workers.

In addition, because of the higher level of social security in developed areas, labor cost is actually higher, which makes it difficult for some companies to give raises to general workers.

Zeng Xiangquan, dean of the School of Labor and Human Resources at Renmin University of China, said that the Lewis turning point has come to China’s labor market.

The Lewis turning point is a concept by economist William Arthur Lewis. After surplus rural labor transfer is completed, the employment population will not be able to keep up with labor demand.

According to estimates, 16- to 24-year-old youth labor in China will decrease from 120 million in 2006 to 60 million in 2020, and the “golden” working population of 25 to 55 would fall significantly starting in 2015, which determines the labor market, especially the low-end labor market.

Experts believe that, after the Lewis turning point, China’s demographic dividend will gradually subside, and structural imbalance of the labor market will further be highlighted.

It will effectively increase the labor supply if the country can lower the household registration threshold and provide the same health care, pension and children’s education to migrant workers, said Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

As for the demand for “decent employment” by migrant workers, the government should promote concepts and values for different professions and reduce unnecessary labor mismatches, said Zhao Dejian, who is in charge of the Joint Meeting Office of Shanghai Migrant Workers.

More disabled people newly employed in 2012

New progress has been made in the employment of the disabled, as China created new jobs for 329,000 disabled urbanites in 2012, according to a communique released Sunday.

As many as 299,000 handicapped urbanites received vocational training last year, while the number of vocational training bases inched up to 5,271 from 5,254 in 2011, according to the communique, which was released by the China Disabled Persons’ Federation (CDPF).

According to the CDPF, a total of 16,514 blind masseuses and 4,925 blind medical workers were trained in 2012, with 12,887 massage care institutions and 848 medical massage institutions located across the country.

Employment is crucial for helping China’s massive handicapped population lead normal lives.

Statistics from the federation show that over 20 million Chinese have hearing disabilities, but a limited number of jobs are open for them in the country’s fiercely competitive job market.

The communique showed that about 3.25 million disabled urbanites joined in the country’s social pension insurance system for urban residents last year, accounting for 58.4 percent of the total disabled urban population.

In addition, about 13.34 million disabled people in rural areas were included in the new rural social endowment insurance system, taking up 63.8 percent of the total disabled rural population, the communique showed.

China’s National Human Rights Action Plan (2012-2015) provides that the country will stabilize and expand employment for the disabled.

Economic recovery buoys building and service sectors

China’s nonmanufacturing industries gained stronger growth momentum in March, supported by an accelerating economic recovery.

The nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index, an indicator that reflects the business activities in the construction and service sectors, bounced back to 55.6 in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on Wednesday. It was 54.5 in February and 56.2 in January.

A PMI above 50 means expansion, as opposed to contraction. The survey covers 1,200 enterprises.

Overall new orders increased 0.2 points to 52 percent month-on-month, and new export orders improved to 51.7 from 51.6, indicating stronger demand from both domestic and overseas markets, said Cai Jin, vice-chairman of the CFLP.

Input prices dropped to 55.3, 0.9 points less than in February, suggesting an easing of inflation pressure, the analyst said.

It is a signal of a strengthened growth impetus for the whole economy, along with the raised manufacturing PMI released on Monday, he said.

The March manufacturing PMI, which reflects factory production, rebounded to 50.9 from 50.1 in February.

The construction industry PMI rose to 62.5, up by 4.5 points from a month earlier and a 12-month high, as most migrant workers returned to cities to resume construction projects after the Spring Festival holiday in February.

“It suggests that construction enterprises have more positive expectations for the market situation this year,” Cai said.
The service industry PMI slightly declined to 53.6 from February’s 54.9. Business volumes for catering, retail, air transport and road transport industries shrank in March, said an NBS statement.

HSBC Holdings PLC reported a service industry PMI on Wednesday based on a separate survey. It registered a six-month high of 54.3 in March, up from 52.1 in February, because of the rebound of new business orders and employment.

Report names most open cities In China

Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Xiamen on the southeast coast are the three places in China with the greatest economic, technological and social openness, according to a report released Saturday at the Boao Forum for Asia.

According to the report, the first of its kind, Shenzhen, one of the earliest economic zones in Guangdong Province, is the most open. It has an edge on trade contacts, innovation and technology exchanges. Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong, is ranked second. Xiamen, in Fujian Province, was third, the Nanfang Daily reported.

All three places were among the first wave of regions in China to modernize their economies and open themselves to foreign investment, a process that started in the 1980s.

The International Cooperation Center of National Development and Reform Commission released the report, which rates Chinese cities’ openness to doing business internationally. The ranking list includes 32 cities, including 27 capital cities and five other cities with provincial-level economic management authority. The evaluation is based on 48 indicators rating the economy, technology and societal openness, trade contacts, foreign currency deposits and direct investments from foreign merchants.

Hangzhou and Ningbo in Zhejiang Province, Nanjing in Jiangsu Province, Dalian in Liaoning Province and Qingdao in Shandong Province came next.

These eight cities are all from coastal or eastern provinces, suggesting that a city’s openness level is closely connected to regional openness and development. It also highlights the problem of China’s imbalanced development regionally, said the report.

Cities taking the last five spots of the list are all from western inland China, namely Hohhot in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Lhasa in Tibet Autonomous Region, Lanzhou in Gansu Province, Yinchuan in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Xining in Qinghai Province, according to China News Service.

The western part of China is not likely to become a hot spot of foreign investments due to its geographical location, Ding Yifan, researcher at the Institute of World Development under the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the Global Times.

Most foreign investment in eastern coastal areas are focused on raw material processing, which doesn’t suit western China, Ding said, adding that the west, which has remarkable sunshine, should seek openness based on its own unique qualities, such as agricultural product processing.

Citing the eastern coastal areas’ great achievements in terms of openness, Ding pointed out that excess capacity is a common problem in China and the east should not continue seeking foreign investment targeting raw material processing,
“Openness in the service industry is the trend,” said Ding. “Currently the service industry in China isn’t open enough in the sense that the market in the field is so large and the potential is also significant.”

Microsoft to launch first Chinese mainland innovation center

Microsoft is expected to establish an innovation center in south China’s Hainan Province, the first of its kind on the Chinese mainland, according to an agreement signed between Microsoft and the Hainan provincial government on Sunday.

Based on Microsoft’s leading technology platform, the Microsoft Innovation Center will attract software enterprises in the fields of tourism and agriculture to Hainan, said Li Guoliang, deputy governor of Hainan.

Li said the government hopes to nurture an ecology-related industrial software chain worth 5 billion yuan (798 million U.S. dollars).

Microsoft will also build a “Microsoft IT Academy” in Hainan to boost the training of IT experts.

Microsoft will carry out strategic cooperation with Hainan regarding technological development, software training and intellectual property rights protection, according to a memorandum of understanding inked by the Hainan provincial government and Microsoft (China) Co., Ltd. on the sidelines of the ongoing Boao Forum for Asia.

Microsoft Group Vice President Orlando Ayala said global tourism hot spots are moving to the Asia-Pacific region, adding that the company’s cooperation with Hainan will prop up the province’s efforts to become a major international tourist destination.

Microsoft Innovation Centers are state-of-the-art facilities designed to foster collaboration on innovative research, technology and software solutions, involving a combination of government, academic and industry participants.

Minimum wage hike helps workers as costs go up

Old Yang, a 55-year-old security guard in a residential complex, has been counting the days until his next paycheck. Effective this month, the minimum wage in Shanghai rises to 1,620 yuan (US$261) a month from 1,450 yuan.

Like most low-wage workers in the city, Old Yang is finding it hard to cope with rising prices for groceries, medicine, transport and the other basic necessities of life.

Sitting in the gate room of a residential compound on Anguo Road in Hongkou District, a cigarette glowing in his left hand, Old Yang said “food, transportation, tuition, water, gas and power bills. You have to pay for everything with the minimum wage.”

Old Yang lost his job during the global financial crisis in 2008 and found work as a security guard through a government-sponsored re-employment program aimed at helping jobless people in their 40s and 50s.

“Many jobless people chose to stay at home after the crisis,” Old Yang said. “I chose not to because my family needs money and I want to get a pension after retirement.”

His wife works part-time to help defray the cost of a son in college.

On March 29, the Shanghai government increased the minimum monthly wage by 11.7 percent, or 170 yuan. The minimum payment for part-time employment was lifted to 14 yuan from 12.5 yuan an hour, according to the government notice that took effect on April 1.

Nationally, Shanghai has the highest minimum wage of all 13 provinces and major cities in China. Its most recent rate of increase, however, isn’t as high as in some provinces, such as Jiangxi Province, which showed the biggest increase this year at 41.4 percent, according to People’s Daily.

The minimum wage in Shanghai has more than quadrupled, from 352 yuan, in the last 15 years. By 2020, China aims to double the per-capita income of both urban and rural residents from 2010 levels and narrow the gap between the rich and poor, according to a report from the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that ended last November.

“The minimum wage will also be doubled by that time,” said Jennifer Feng, a senior human resource analyst with 51job.com, a Nasdaq-listed headhunting firm. “But you have to remember we are talking about net income. Actual take-home pay may be less, when social insurance fees and other mandatory costs are included.”

In its Five-Year Plan for the period ending 2015, the State Council, China’s Cabinet, stipulates annual increases of at least 13 percent.

“I think the latest increase is a balanced result, which takes into account the rising cost of living and the payroll tolerance capacity of employers,” Feng said. The risk, she said, is that employers, especially in manufacturing, may lay off staff or recruit lower-paid workers to replace experienced ones in order to lower their operating costs.

There were a dozen security guards in Old Yang’s residential compound last December. Now, there are only six.

“Maybe our boss knew he couldn’t afford so many of us, anticipating that the minimum wage would rise, so he fired them earlier,” Old Yang said.

He said his employer tends to hire local people like him because their social insurance fees are paid for by the government and the neighborhood committee under the re-employment plan.

Still, migrant workers are also commonly hired as security guards and cleaners in Shanghai. One such colleague of Old Yang’s, surnamed Zheng, lives in the basement of a high-rise in the housing complex, along with his wife, who works as a cleaner. Zheng, a native from central China’s Henan Province, declined to give his full name.

Zheng said the accommodation is free and he doesn’t have to pay utilities.

“Rent can gobble up nearly half of the minimum wage in Shanghai,” Zheng said. “The city is really too expensive to live in.”

For employers, the picture is mixed. A rise in minimum wages tends to make higher-paid workers think they should get raises, too. Feng said as wages rise, many employers are caught in a bind. Amid slower economic growth, they are under pressure to make more money, and wages account for a big chunk of operating cost. She suggests the government help share the burden by reducing business taxes or by defraying part of the cost of hiring people.

Beijing is booming, but talent is leaving due to bad air

Some days it is so thick that you can scarcely see across the street. Other days its acrid smell catches at the back of your throat. More than one day in two in recent months, it has been officially unsafe to go outside without a face mask.

Three months of shockingly bad air pollution, known to foreigners here as the “airpocalypse,” is now prompting growing numbers of expatriates and their families to leave China, and some companies to offer hazard pay to keep them here, according to executive recruiters, doctors, and business leaders.

And for the first time, they add, ambitious young Chinese executives, too, are seeking to build their careers in more hospitable cities, driven to fresher pastures by the capital’s foul air.

Though foreigners leave Beijing for many motives, says Jim Leininger, principal consultant at the Beijing office of Towers Watson, a global human resources firm, “the litany of reasons usually starts with air quality. It’s a very important factor.”

“Just yesterday I got two e-mails from people who said they had been in Beijing for several years, the air quality was nuts, and they wanted to go back to the States,” adds Kitty Vorisek, executive vice president of DHR, a head hunting company with five offices in China. Such requests, she says, have snowballed in recent months.

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The past three months have seen the worst air pollution on record in Beijing. For a couple of days in January, the levels of PM 2.5 particulate matter (2.5 micrometers or less in diameter, which reaches deepest into the lungs) were 40 times higher than those categorized as safe by the World Health Organization.

On 35 days during February and March, more than every other day, the US embassy’s air pollution monitor detected levels deemed “very unhealthy,” “hazardous,” or “beyond index.”

“Air quality is one of the most negative things about living in Beijing, especially for families with children,” says Mr. Leininger. “It’s all you hear about every day.”

“I’ve talked to a lot of parents who won’t be renewing their employment contracts when they are up,” says Richard Saint Cyr, a doctor at Beijing United Family Hospital who specializes in air quality issues. “For many of them it is a very reasonable decision.”

FOREIGN BUSINESS COMMUNITY TAKING A HIT

The trend is anecdotal for the time being; nobody appears to have compiled any statistics yet, but human resources experts say the movement is clear and a handful of departures have attracted attention in the foreign business community.

A senior lawyer for BMW and a top Volkswagen executive both insisted on being repatriated in January, and when anyone leaves “we inevitably hear, nearly every time, that one of the contributing reasons is the air pollution,” says Adam Dunnett, head of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.

The traditional outflow of expatriates in the summer, at the end of the school year, is “almost guaranteed” to be up on last year, predicts Max Price, China partner at Antal, an executive consultancy. But pollution is not the only reason, he points out; many international firms are increasingly replacing foreign executives with locally hired Chinese recruits.

That might become more difficult in the future, observers suggest. Some young Chinese executives, who have long seen Beijing as a high-paying mecca where the rewards are worth the hardships, are beginning to think differently.

REASON TO GO SOUTH

Appealing to them are companies such as Meizu, a manufacturer of mobile phone handsets based in the southern seaside town of Zhuhai.

Two months ago, the firm launched a “Blue Sky Recruitment” campaign in Beijing, placing ads in business tower block elevators around the city to tempt young IT engineers into moving south.

“Do you dare to pursue a life with blue sky and white clouds?” read a Meizu poster at a Beijing jobs fair last week. “Welcome to air you can breathe with a PM 2.5 reading of 27.”

“Young Chinese professionals are looking not just at pay but at quality of life issues too,” says Mr. Price, whose own girlfriend has just moved from Beijing to the coastal city of Qingdao to escape the pollution here. “They are very curious about this stuff, more eyes are open, and I can see this increasing.”

Meanwhile, human resources departments are scrambling to deal with the air quality issue for their companies’ employees, buying air purifiers, restoring hardship allowances, and asking for expert advice.

“Our hospital has been flooded with requests from companies and embassies for health talks,” says Dr. Saint Cyr. “A lot of businessmen are very, very worried about this.”

That has made it harder to attract new talent from abroad, says Ms. Vorisek. In the past six months, she says, health questions have become “much more prevalent” among candidates for jobs in Beijing. Some companies, according to Price, are even paying American recruits “danger money” to attract them.

LONG TERM DAMAGE TO BEIJING?

This could do long term damage to Beijing’s future, worries Huang Xiaoping, head of Risfond, a head-hunting company that specializes in recruiting foreigners to Chinese companies. “It will be a big challenge for Beijing to attract foreign talent if the air quality does not improve,” he warns. “Environmental problems could become a big obstacle to future economic growth.”

The Chinese government says it is aware of the threat. Most of the PM 2.5 pollution comes from power generating plants and cars. The head of Beijing’s Environmental Bureau, Chen Tian, promised in an interview this week with the Beijing News that new automobile emissions standards to be introduced in July will help reduce pollution, and that the construction of new power stations outside Beijing will be sped up so that coal-burning generators can be shut down.

In February, the State Council, China’s cabinet, pledged new fuel standards to make gasoline and diesel less polluting.

Similar promises in the past, however, have not always been kept.

Beijing is losing its pre-eminence in China’s economy, and thus its attractiveness to high-flying foreign executives, as second-tier cities develop specialized industries, says Price. “How fast that happens depends on how quickly they get hold of the pollution issue,” he predicts.

“Beijing will always be the capital of the fastest growing big economy in the world,” he says. “But it is losing its attraction.”