Archives May 2013

China services growth slows sharply, adds to recovery risk

Growth in China’s services sector slowed sharply in April to its lowest point since August 2011, a private sector survey showed on Monday – fresh evidence of rising risks to a revival in the world’s No.2 economy.

The HSBC services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.1 in April from 54.3 in March, with new order expansion the slowest in 20 months and staffing levels in the service sector decreasing for the first time since January 2009.

Two separate PMIs last week had already shown that China’s manufacturing sector growth slowed, With the weakness spreading to services, which make up almost half of gross domestic product, the risk to the recovery may be increasing.

“The weak HSBC service PMI figure provides further evidence of a slowdown not only in the factory sector but also in the service sector,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Securities in Hong Kong.

“This confirms our worries about insufficient growth momentum in the economy, which we expect to slow to 7.5 percent in the second quarter.”

The HSBC services PMI follows a similar survey by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which found non-manufacturing activity eased to 54.5 from 55.6. The official PMI is more weighted towards large state-owned firms.

Readings above 50 indicate activity in the sector is growing, while those below 50 indicate it is contracting.

The HSBC survey showed that the sub-index measuring new business orders dropped sharply to a 20-month low of 51.5 in April, with only 15 percent of survey respondents reporting an increased volume of new orders that month, HSBC said.

“This started to bite employment growth. All these are likely to add some risk to China’s growth in 2Q, as there’s still a bumpy road towards sustaining growth recovery,” said HSBC’s China chief economist Qu Hongbin.

The employment sub-index decreased to 49.6 in April, the first net reduction in staff numbers since January 2009, although HSBC said job losses were marginal, partially caused by firms down-sizing and employee resignations.

Employment is a decisive factor shaping government thinking because it is crucial for social stability. The services sector accounted for 46 percent of China’s gross domestic product in 2012, as big as the country’s better-known manufacturing industry.

China’s economic growth unexpectedly stumbled in the first quarter, slipping to 7.7 percent versus 7.9 percent in the previous three month period, as factory output and investment slowed.

The government has set a 2013 growth target of 7.5 percent, a level Beijing deems sufficient for job creation while providing some room to reform to the economy.

Any more weak data could spark a policy response.

“The risk of slower growth is rising, the Chinese government will probably take actions after April data come out,” said Jianguang Shen, chief China economist of Mizuho Securities Asia in Hong Kong.

“I see an increasing possibility for China to cut interest rates, but not likely any time in the near future, as housing inflation is a constraint.”

However a Reuters poll last month found that China’s central bank is expected to keep the benchmark one-year bank lending rate at 6 percent and the one-year bank deposit rate at 3 percent through 2013, as well as holding banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRR) steady.

Hard times for grads

Only about 28 percent of graduates and 37 percent of postgraduates in Beijing had signed employment contracts as of late April, according to figures from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Education, the Beijing Times reported.

The changes in the international and domestic economic environment are the main reasons leading to the low employment rates of Chinese graduates this year, said an official from the commission. A total of 6.99 million college students will have graduated by June in China, the highest number since 1949.

University seniors struggle to find good job

A majority of university and college students set to graduate in the city next month are still looking for a job due to the grim employment situation.

Only 29 percent of 178,000 students who are to graduate this June have signed an offer, been admitted to postgraduate studies or decided to study abroad as of last month, according to the Shanghai Student Affairs Center.

The percentage was up 4 percent from March but down 3 percent year-on-year, even though the number of graduates is about the same as last year, the center said.

The center attributed the poor employment prospects for graduates mainly on the recovering economy, adding that the number of available positions declined from the past two years.

Some industries, especially manufacturing and foreign trade, have either suffered a downturn or are in a transition, making it especially difficult for students who majored in those fields.

In order to get a job, some students lowered their salary expectations while others accepted a position in a different industry.

“I would take a job as long as the salary is 3,000 yuan (US$488) a month,” said a student majoring in printing art design at University of Shanghai for Science and Technology.

The senior said he has had more than 20 job interviews, but hasn’t heard back from any of the companies.

In February, students were still expecting a starting salary of at least 4,000 yuan, up 225 yuan from the average salary of 2012 graduates, according to China International Intellectech (Shanghai) Corp.

Only 20 percent of seniors at University of Shanghai for Science and Technology have signed up for a job or have been admitted to postgraduate studies, said Niu Xiangyu, director of the student employment guidance center at the school.

Niu said the demand for mechanical and manufacturing graduates was down 40 percent from last year.

Teachers from student employment centers at other universities and colleges said the accumulation of jobless graduates from previous years and the increasing number of overseas students who return to China for jobs have made it more difficult for this year’s graduates to land a job.

“The overwhelming number of applicants have made competition for jobs harder and fiercer,” said Tan Yuxu, director of the employment guidance center at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

“But the students are reluctant to lower their expectations,” Tan said.

For example, some students refused to take jobs requiring different shifts even though the salary could be more than 4,000 yuan per month.

“Many students lost job opportunities like that simply because they don’t want to endure hardships,” Tan said.

Tan also said some students were spoiled by their parents and gave up easily after they failed to find an ideal job. They then relied on their parents and missed the best time to get a job, Tan added.

Tan suggested parents help their children lower expectations for their first job rather than compare them to their peers or help them become a NEET, defined as a young person “not in education, employment, or training.”

Nationwide, nearly 7 million university students are about to graduate this summer, the largest number since 1949.

Education focus shifts to filling labor gap

Vocational schools emphasize skilled training to meet growing demand

China is gradually shifting its education focus from a pursuit of diplomas to vocational training, in a bid to meet the growing demand for skilled workers in the country’s technical upgrade.

The supply and demand in China’s labor market has been mismatched, which resulted in structural unemployment, said Rong Lanxiang, headmaster of Shandong Lanxiang Vocational School, one of China’s largest training bases of skilled workers.

“The overexpansion of university enrollment generates millions of graduates who struggle to find a place in the government or public institutions. But, on the other hand, the shortage of skilled workers in China’s manufacturing sector was more than 4 million at the moment,” Rong said, explaining that high-skilled workers only account for 15 percent of the country’s workforce.

Another reason is the stereotyped, stubborn image that workers are ranked at a lower class of the social hierarchy and fail to win enough esteem, he added.

Rong said the issue has drawn attention from the government and corresponding changes in policy have been made, as reflected by the change in students’ subsidies.

In February, China decided that from 2014 it will do away with the publicly funded postgraduate education system that has been in place for several decades.

Meanwhile, the government has also been increasing fiscal support for vocational schools. Since 2012, the Shandong government has provided annual subsidies of up to 4,800 yuan ($773) for each of Rong’s students, on top of the 1,500-yuan national allowance.

“The policy came 10 years late, otherwise we would not have seen such a large gap in the supply of skilled workers,” Rong said.

His words were echoed by Xu Xiaoping, a senior technician from Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive Co, who said manufacturers are facing a severe shortage of skilled workers.

“Even if we offer a salary of 5,000 to 7,000 yuan per month, it’s still hard to locate the right candidates,” he said.

He attributed the malaise currently afflicting the industry to the absence of trained professionals as well as the lack of enterprise engagement.

To iron out the issue, Xu said Shanghai Volkswagen has signed several memorandums of understanding with local vocational schools to nurture technical practitioners.

As for the Lanxiang school, Rong said employers have to pay 1,000 to 3,000 yuan for each graduate they book. Even so, only companies with a noted brand and good track record are eligible to do so.

A student of the school who went on to become an excavator operator or motor mechanic could make as much as 10,000 yuan a month, an enviable salary level even for top university graduates.

Graduates from the excavator operating class have also been employed by State-owned enterprises and sent for overseas mining project in Russia and Mongolia, with even better pay.

Although Lanxiang has trained more than 300,000 skilled workers, the labor gap currently stands at 4 million people.

Therefore, Rong suggested that training bases for skilled workers should be established in each province, in order to equip the 250-million-strong migrant workforce with skills or proficiencies, so that they’ll have a better chance to settle down in the cities.

Meanwhile, he said, skilled workers should have a similar social status with public servants and university graduates.

Apart from cash payments, he called for job certification to be granted for vocational school graduates so as to encourage more young people to become skilled workers.

“Nowadays kids aren’t used to hard work, partly because being a worker doesn’t sound decent enough,” said Zhou Zhenbo, a technician at Shanghai Delixi Group Co Ltd who has a tenfold pay increase over the past nine years.

“I think it’s still worth the effort and young people should learn to put their feet on the ground,” he said.

China’s bosses criticized over high pay

Under chairman Jiang Jianqing, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China raked in $38.5bn in net profits last year, making it the world’s most profitable bank. For his efforts, Mr Jiang was paid $185,000, less than 1 per cent of the overall package awarded to Lloyd Blankfein, chairman of Goldman Sachs.

Mr Jiang fared well compared with other Chinese financiers — he was the best paid among the bosses of the country’s biggest banks.

Chinese executives at state-owned groups have long been among the lowest paid of their global peers, according to their officially declared salaries. But even their apparently meagre pay generates controversy at a time when executive salaries at public companies globally attract scrutiny.

In China, it is not a case of shareholder revolt — the government is the controlling shareholder of virtually all major Chinese companies and has the power to easily change salaries. Rather, public anger about inequality and corruption has made executive pay a focus for media attacks, even from official outlets.

The government-run Xinhua news agency said in an editorial: “If the top executives of state-owned companies just fatten themselves, giving themselves high salaries and rich benefits, this is a departure from the original intent of the founding of these companies.”

The People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of the Communist party, said: “High pay for high-level executives and low pay for ordinary employees is immoral.

“If the pay for high-level executives is severely out of balance with the pay for ordinary employees, then the management has a problem.” The harshest criticism was directed at China International Marine Containers. Net profits fell by 47 per cent last year, but group president Mai Boliang was the best paid of the top managers of the country’s state-owned companies, pulling in $1.6m. The People’s Daily noted that salaries of CIMC’s top executives had risen 13-fold in the past four years, while the average pay for employees rose just 32 per cent.

Executives at other state-owned groups cut their pay because of poor performance. Wei Jiafu, chairman of China Cosco, China’s biggest shipper, decided to take home $97,000, half of what he was due, after the company lost $1.5bn.

It is an unpopular view, but some Chinese academics and analysts say the main problem with executive pay at state-owned companies is that much of the time it is too low.

Tang Jie, a researcher at Renmin university’s school of finance, says the government has tried to develop better incentive systems at state-owned companies by linking pay to performance, but that it is some way off from achieving this.

“This issue derives from the history of the government’s management of state-owned companies. Executive pay is very low when compared to their contributions, their abilities and their responsibilities,” says Mr Tang. “State-owned companies need professional managers. They should be paid according to market standards, with compensation adjusted according to objective performance criteria.”

Proponents of better executive pay point to the idea of gaoxinyanglian — the theory that higher salaries could be used as a way to discourage corruption.

The fall of Communist party leadership hopeful Bo Xilai last year, exposed the extent to which officials have enriched themselves despite small salaries. Mr Bo’s official pay was $1,600 a month, but his family had net assets of $130m, according to Bloomberg.

Even in cases without extreme corruption, Chinese corporate executive have grey sources of income. Top bankers have low official salaries and small bonuses, but they often receive homes, cars, free schooling and more.

Fabrice Isnard, head of financial services in the Shanghai office of Robert Walters, a recruitment consultancy, says foreign banks in China can rarely afford to lure talent away from local banks because of the way pay is structured.

“We have seen that at local banks, senior positions have better packages than [at] foreign banks,” he says. “If you add up all the benefits it becomes too expensive for the foreign banks to hire them.”

China’s air pollution scaring away expat executives

Exits of top foreign managers amid health fears predicted to rise in future

Whitney Foard Small loved China and her job as a regional director of communications for a top automaker. But after air pollution led to several stays in hospital and finally a written warning from her doctor telling her she needed to leave the country, she packed up and moved to Thailand.

In doing so, the Ford Motor Co. executive became another expatriate to leave China because of its notoriously bad air. Other top executives whose careers would be boosted by a stint in the world’s second-largest economy and most populous consumer market are put off when considering the move.

Executive recruitment firms say it is becoming harder to attract top talent to China — both expats and Chinese nationals educated abroad. The European Chamber of Commerce in China says foreign managers leave for many different reasons, but that pollution is almost always cited as one of the factors — and is becoming a larger concern.

If the polluted skies continue, firms may have to fork out more for salaries or settle for less qualified candidates. Failure to attract the best talent to crucial roles could result in lost commercial opportunities and other missteps.

Poor air quality has also added to the existing complaints foreign companies have about operating in China. Even though the country’s commercial potential remains vast, groups representing foreign firms say doing business is getting tougher due to slowing though still robust economic growth, limits on market access and intellectual property theft.

China’s rapid economic development over the last three decades has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty but also ravaged the environment as heavy industry burgeoned and car ownership became a badge of status for the newly affluent. Health risks from pollution of air, water and soil have become a source of discontent with Communist Party rule.

Foreigners regularly check the air quality readings put out by the U.S. Embassy and consulates on their Twitter feeds when deciding whether to go out for a run or let their children play outside.

The pollution has become even more of a hot topic since January, when the readings in Beijing went off the scale and beyond what is considered hazardous by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

At the same time, China’s state media gave unprecedented coverage to the pollution following months of growing pressure from a Chinese middle class that has become more vocal about the quality of its air.

“January was probably the worst,” said Australian Andrew Moffatt, who worked in Beijing before the pollution pushed him to return to Brisbane in March with his wife and 5-year-old son. “Back in November I had been sick and then we went on holiday to the beach in Hainan, and it just reminded me of Australia and I just thought we could be breathing this quality air every single day rather than polluted air in Beijing.”

And it’s not only in the capital where the air pollution is driving expats away.

Ford transferred its regional headquarters from Bangkok to Shanghai in 2009. Four months after the move, Small had her first major asthma attack. “I had never had asthma in my life, never ever had asthma before China,” said Small, who quit the country in May last year.

Her asthma was exacerbated by an allergy to coal, which is the source of about 70 percent of China’s energy. In Shanghai, the problem resurfaced. “Three hospitalizations later, my doctor said it was time to call it quits,” she said.

Her frequent treatments — involving inhalers, steroids and a nebulizer in the mornings and evenings to get medication deep into her lungs — meant the medication became less effective. “I actually got a written warning from my pulmonary doctor and it said you need to reconsider for your life’s sake what you’re doing and so that was it. I didn’t really have a choice, my doctor made it for me,” she said.

Ivo Hahn, the CEO of the China office of executive search consultants Stanton Chase, said that in the last six months, air pollution has become an issue for candidates they approach. “It pops up increasingly that people say, ‘Well, we don’t want to move to Beijing’ or ‘I can’t convince my family to move to Beijing,’ ” he said.

Hahn thinks this trend will only strengthen over the next one or two years because the highest-level executives generally “are not working primarily for their survival.” Such employees, he said, “normally get a decent pay, they are generally reasonably well taken care of, so the quality of life actually does matter, particularly when they have children.”

Some, however, say that China has become too important economically for up-and-coming corporate executives to ignore. It generates a large and growing share of profits for global companies while still offering a vast untapped potential.

“It’s increasingly important for people who want to have careers as managers in multinational companies to have international experience, and as part of their career path and in terms of international experience, China is one of the most desirable places because of the size of the market and growth and dynamism of the market,” said Christian Murck, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

Hahn said the effects of expats refusing to relocate to China aren’t going to be felt overnight, but eventually “either companies will have to pay a higher price overall because maybe candidates may have to commute, as an example, or they may lower their standards or they may offer the position to somebody who may actually not be quite as qualified.”

If the trend worsens, it would have some economic impact, said Alistair Thornton, senior China economist at IHS in Beijing.

“Expats contribute almost nothing to China’s growth because the numbers are just tiny, but intangibly they contribute quite a significant amount” by introducing foreign technology, best practices and Western management techniques “that Chinese companies are harnessing and using to drive growth,” said Thornton.

He is leaving Beijing in June, citing air pollution as one of the factors.