Archives January 2010

China’s scope for clever job creation

By DANIEL H. ROSEN

While everyone is glad to put 2009 behind them, 2010 could be an even tougher economic year for China. To climb out of the global contraction, Beijing has engineered a property bubble characterized by oversupply in commercial real estate and unsustainable price gains for residential property. The consequences of this will bite in the new year.

To soak up and justify this excess, China’s leaders are trying to stoke demand by accelerating the already epic urbanization trend, reducing constraints on migration and urban registration. The leadership is betting on the connection between accelerated urbanization and consumption, too. In 2008, 43% of China’s population was considered urban, versus an average of 79% for Latin America, 73% in the euro area and 82% in the U.S: China still has a long way to go.

By front-loading this urban growth, China will bolster prices for upstream raw materials like iron ore and aluminum in the near term and keep construction companies busy. But many people are concerned that China’s urban factories already are overbrimming with overcapacity in almost all sectors, and boosting urban migration will just aggravate overproduction, which will spill into world markets.

If China is already suffering overcapacity in everything, then indeed swelling the urban population would just exacerbate problems. But it isn’t. In fact, there are huge swaths of economic activity and employment simply missing from the Chinese marketplace. Policies that address the reasons for this can create tens of millions of new jobs in traditional and new sectors in the years ahead, adding to domestic consumption and diverting the country from a collision course with its trading partners.

Consider three sectors: healthcare, manufacturing white collar, and education.

Healthcare: China has 1.6 doctors per thousand people; the U.S. has more than 23. Not that China wants to replicate everything about U.S. healthcare, but given rising pathology and mortality due to aging baby boomers, changes in diet, lifestyle, longevity and environmental contamination, filling this shortfall is critical. Reaching the U.S. ratio would mean adding almost 30 million doctors, not to mention multiples of the current low numbers of supporting staff—nurses, palliative-care specialists, hospital administrators and hundreds of other subspecialties comprising the modern healthcare sector.

Manufacturing White Collar: For all its storied manufacturing-sector prowess, China’s goods makers skimp on R&D, quality control, brand management, financial planning, environmental-health safety and almost every other white-collar position that turns a manufactured commodity into a branded product and generates intangible value for the firm: value that makes up a third or more of assets in most Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development firms.

While China Inc. may have overcapacity on the assembly line, it has extraordinary undercapacity in the business functions that turn a $10 generic toaster coming out of a Chinese factory into a $75 Braun-branded toaster sold at retail in the U.S. or Europe.

China would need at least 60 million more white-collar workers to be comparable with the U.S. on this score. Given the different development levels, we might cut that in half, but 30 million missing office-worker bees is a lot of jobs.

Education: The missing-jobs number is also huge in education. China has 10 teachers per thousand people, as opposed to 22 in the U.S. Basic education for urban migrant-workers’ children is a critical task if accelerated urbanization is to generate more prosperity and not just worsening income inequality, social tension and developmental problems like crime and an underclass. China currently needs another 16 million teachers to reach the ratio in the U.S., as well as attendant teacher-trainers, guidance counselors, school administrators, and other related employees.

Of course there are reasons why these jobs don’t already exist.

In the case of healthcare and education, Beijing has chosen to save resources or transfer them to state-owned enterprises rather than make sufficient public expenditures, while simultaneously preventing private enterprises from investing in these areas as businesses. There are some low-price private hospitals and clinics in China, but with limited resources and market shares. In manufacturing, the cost of capital to build up white collar employment for private and SME firms is typically two-to-five times that of the low nominal rates heavier state-owned enterprises enjoy. And when they are able to build a brand and their own intellectual property, poor enforcement of regulations and intellectual-property protection jeopardizes their ability to recover their investment.

These three sectors just scratch the surface of new job potential: China is far from suffering “overcapacity in everything.” The problem is that what is overcapacity doesn’t create many jobs.

Steel, aluminum, cement, plate glass and upstream petrochemicals together create just 14 million jobs in a labor pool of 780 million, which is fewer than the number of service-sector jobs in Guangdong Province alone.

China’s consumption-urbanization policy thinking is the right way to go, but only if policy simultaneously addresses the biases in the financial sector that starve job-creating sectors while larding other industries with capital. What China needs to make its urbanization strategy the solution rather than an unsustainable bubble machine, to put it simply, is affirmative action for labor-intensive industries.

Private equity helps boost China jobs, R&D-survey

Private equity investments in China lead to the creation of more jobs and spending on research and development than their publicly listed counterparts, a survey showed on Thursday.

Private equity has sometimes been viewed with apprehension in China, particularly when large state firms have been the targets of investments.

In a survey dating from 2002 to 2008, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said that the economic and social impact of private equity investments was quite positive.

Total employment at firms backed by private equity grew by 16 percent over that period, twice as much as at publicly listed companies, the EU Chamber said in a report. Salaries also grew more quickly, it said.

“Private equity’s qualitative impact on hiring and compensation is helping to move China’s economy toward greater domestic consumption and more secure social stability,” it said in a report.

Research and development spending as a percentage of revenue in PE-financed firms was more than 2.5 times that of their publicly listed peers, it added.

PE-backed firms saw a 39 percent average increase in profits over that period when compounded annually, compared with 25 percent among publicly listed companies, the Chamber said. (Reporting by Jason Subler; editing by Simon Jessop)

China’s manufacturing hits 20-month high

Simon Rabinovitch and Aileen Wang

China’s manufacturing sector steamed ahead in December as strong rises in new orders and output drove a key economic survey to a 20-month high.

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) jumped to 56.6 in December from 55.2 in the previous month, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) said on Friday.

It was the tenth straight month that the index has stood above the watershed mark of 50, indicating an expansion of activity.

As the biggest month-on-month rise since March, it also suggested that the Chinese manufacturing sector, far from plateauing after its recovery, has actually gathered momentum.

“December’s PMI reading suggests sustained expansion in industrial activity,” Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at J.P. Morgan, said in a research note. “The forward-looking components of PMI indicate continued expansion in both domestic and external demand.”

But a slower expansion of new export orders for the second straight month may offer pause to officials who have been extremely cautious in winding down loose, pro-growth policies, believing that domestic stimulus is still needed to counteract sluggish external demand.

“The fall in the indicator for new export orders warrants attention, as it shows we must avoid undue optimism about the improvement in the international marketplace,” said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council’s Development Research Centre who comments on the PMI for the logistics federation.

Another mildly discordant note among the otherwise rosy survey was the reading for input prices, which climbed to a 17-month high of 66.7 in December, up from 63.4 in November.

“The input price rise shows that the production cost of enterprises are climbing. Enterprises should work to increase their capability to withstand rising costs,” Zhang said.

Worries about price rises have emerged again in China after deflation for much of 2009, with top leaders saying that controlling inflationary expectations will be one of their priorities this year.

The dominant theme of the PMI, though, was the broadening strength of China’s recovery. Seventeen of 20 industries surveyed reported an expansion in activity, with metal products the strongest and tobacco at the low end.

China’s economy shot back to nearly double-digit growth in 2009 after nearly standing still at the end of 2008, giving a lift to Asia and countries that have been able to feed its voracious appetite for commodities.

An unexpected surge in South Korean exports in December was the latest evidence of how economies that are intertwined with China have benefited.

China’s PMI also showed that the country’s job market has continued to improve. The employment sub-index hit 52.2 in December, up from 51.1 in the previous month, as 12 of 20 industries reported increases in hiring.

Many analysts believe that two crucial preconditions for China to begin tightening policy more aggressively are a recovery in employment and a sustained increase in exports.

At the height of the global financial crisis, China’s central planners worried the country would be unable to reach the 8 per cent growth deemed necessary to maintain employment and avert social instability.

The country’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus package, complemented by a record surge in bank lending, propelled the economy to 8.9 per cent year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2009 and put it on track for even faster expansion this year.

“We expect China’s strong economic growth momentum to continue in 2010, with the major source of growth coming from a broad-based improvement in private consumption, and further strengthening in private housing investment, and a solid recovery in exports,” Ulrich said.