Archives January 2009

More job losses may surface for urban workers in 2009

BEIJING, Jan. 3 (Xinhua) — Cai Fang, a renowned labor expert in China, warns the country may see more job losses among urban workers in 2009 after millions of migrant workers became unemployed last year.

The majority of job losses in 2008 were mainly reported among migrant workers, Cai, head of the Population and Labor Economy Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), wrote in an article published in Caijing Magazine in December.

Migrant workers, who often work in factories, are among the first to bear the brunt of the current global financial crisis. Statistics from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security showed 10 million of China’s total 130 million migrant workers went back to their rural hometowns jobless last year after some exporters were forced to shut down or halt production to avoid losses as a result of decreased overseas demand.

As a result, the income of rural and urban residents could grow at a slower pace, Cai said. The deceleration of income growth would definitely hurt consumption, he added.

Weak domestic consumption would further slow the country’s economic growth. In addition, the other two growth engines — export and investment — are also not doing well, Cai said.

This could lead to more job losses across the country, he added.

“In the end, there could be a noted increase in the unemployment rate for 2009.”

The government has already taken actions to promote exports, investment and consumption in order to boost the economy.

Measures so far include a four-trillion-yuan stimulus package, raising export rebates to benefit exporters and tapping the vast rural market with more government subsidies for farmers to buy home appliances, among others.

Cai also said the unemployment rate compiled by the government would not rise markedly in 2008 because rural laborers are not counted in the figure.

The unemployment rate was 4 percent for the January-October period in 2008. The unemployment rate in 2007 was also 4 percent.

Overseas Chinese eye motherland for jobs

They were the “gold-collar” workers: highly educated Chinese people working on Wall Street. Now, they are known as “sea turtles” as they head home to escape the financial storm.

Nearly 1,000 would-be turtles in business suits packed the ballroom of a New York hotel on December 13, where they pitched themselves at a job fair for opportunities in Shanghai, China’s financial hub.

Among them was Dong Shaw, who has worked on Wall Street for the last eight years after doing a PhD at Columbia University, and now uses an anglicized form of his last name.

“The crisis in the US is very severe. We’re having a serious shock that will reshape the landscape of Wall Street,” says Shaw, who is looking for jobs that match his expertise in model-driven stock selection.

Shaw, who said he was in his 40s, currently does stock-picking at a hedge fund and has also worked at Scudder Investments, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.

Like many at the fair, Shaw is attracted to China’s relatively unscathed financial sector and still healthy growth prospects.

“As a new market, China is full of opportunities,” the Shanghai native told reporters.

The worst financial crisis in decades has left the US economy mired in a recession since December 2007, claiming more than 2 million jobs so far. New York’s securities industry has lost 16,000 jobs and could lose a total of 38,000 by next October, while another 10,000 could be axed in related fields such as banking, according to New York’s state comptroller.

Some cities and firms in China are quick to exploit the opportunity to lure back native talent. The fair was led by the Shanghai municipal government and organized by about two dozen banks, insurers and securities firms from the city, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange, one of the two stock exchanges in the Chinese mainland.

New York was the last stop in the delegation’s efforts to poach back up to as many as 170 seasoned specialists in such fields as risk management and private wealth management. Its two earlier recruiting sessions in London and Chicago attracted a total of 1,200 people.

Earlier this month, Nanjing in Jiangsu province in East China held similar events in several major cities in the US, which attracted hundreds of people.

Eager to become a major player in the world economy, China is working hard to expand its talent pool and overseas Chinese, who offer both international experience and language and cultural skills, have often become an ideal option for local firms.

Of the 1.2 million Chinese people who have gone abroad to study in the past 30 years, only one fourth of them have returned, according to the Chinese government.

It’s been a tough year for many of the “gold-collar” Chinese on Wall Street. Some have lost their jobs and most have seen their personal wealth shrink.

“This is an unusual time. For some, this is their first experience of being unemployed and they’re under enormous pressure,” says Tony Tang, president of The Chinese Finance Association (TCFA), a nonprofit group based in New York.

“Now these Chinese companies are giving out positions and many are contemplating it.”

Optimism over China

To be sure, the Chinese economy is also hitting a bump this year as export demand evaporates in response to the global economic slowdown. Sagging asset values are another cause of concern, with the local stock market down about 70 percent this year, one of the worst performers in the world.

Beijing recently unveiled another round of stimulus measures including increasing money supply by 17 percent to boost lending and consumption. It comes on the heels of a 4 trillion yuan package announced last month amid fears growth could fall below the 8 percent considered necessary to create enough jobs.

Indeed, so many sea turtles (hai gui in Mandarin) have returned home that the people of Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere have invented a new name for those returnees who cannot find a job: “seaweed” (hai dai).

But, while unemployment is rising in China, there are still opportunities at the top of the labor market, especially for those with foreign education and experience.

Zack Liu, who returned to China in earlier 2008 after more than a decade on Wall Street, says he was impressed by the efforts made by Chinese fund firms to institutionalize and professionalize the industry.

Liu started his career in finance in 1996 at Bear Stearns after earning an MBA from Cornell and a PhD degree in physics from Florida State University. Over the past year, he has watched two of the three firms he worked for either collapse or merge with others as a result of the credit crunch.

“It’s sad to watch all these big banks fail. Life is like a roller-coaster. I made the right decision at the right time to come back to China,” Liu tells reporters by phone from his new home in Shenzhen.

Patriotism is sometimes a factor, but economic interest is certainly a much more important consideration. Still, many “sea turtles” acknowledged that they’re willing to accept lower pay if the job provides attractive career prospects.

Career International, a leading recruitment firm in Beijing, says there has been a jump in interest from Chinese employees on Wall Street. Their potential employers in China, according to the company, mostly offer a base pay in the range of $100,000 to $500,000.

“Before the crisis, we were receiving about five resumes per week on average. Now, it’s two or three times of that,” Jun Xu, director of the firm’s financial services group, says by telephone from Beijing.

“We’re also trying to help their families through the transition. Unlike us (who only have one child), many ‘sea turtles’ have two or three kids and some also need a bilingual daycare center.”

Some in the United States, such as Ke Zhang, who works for a hedge fund after being laid off from Lehman Brothers earlier this year, are taking a wait-and-see attitude.

“The economy here is terrible,” says the 27-year-old who holds a masters degree from Columbia University. “Gaining experience in the US is still very important. Besides, the employment situation in China is far from rosy either.”

Hire more now for greater benefits later

Chinese enterprises that found themselves falling behind the talent rush in the past should take heart from the global economic slowdown as it presents a golden opportunity for them to recruit qualified and experienced executives and professionals from around the world.

Of course, talent doesn’t come cheap, human resources experts say. But it is at least available as more and more US and European multinational companies are going into the retrenchment mode to cut costs.

Human resources experts are of the view that the layoff strategies are”short-sighted” and costly in the longer term. When the economy begins to turn the corner and embark on a new cycle, these corporations will have to offer unusually high salaries and attractive incentives to compete for the talented personnel they laid off.

But before the economic pendulum swings to the other side, there exists a window of opportunity for Chinese enterprises, long constrained by their relatively more rigid pay scales and rudimentary incentive programs, to get the professionals they need to expand their businesses on the mainland and overseas .

In an exclusive interview with China Business Weekly, Goodwin, CEO of Antal International, a global recruitment company that charges corporate clients thousands of dollars as consultancy fees, says “hiring people now can bring greater long-term benefit than firing”.

Goodwin advocates different strategies for local companies, multinational firms already present and for those companies who want to enter China. He stresses that the ultimate objective for all three categories would be “a long-term HR policy”.

US companies tend to react a little more aggressively to the perceived effects of the global economic downturn and reduce their workforce quickly. On the other hand domestic enterprises and European multinationals have shown greater restraint in their response to the crisis, says Goodwin.

In these uncertain times when the developed economies, especially the US, are sliding into a recession, corporate executives need to be careful while formulating the human resources strategies, he says.

“Companies that are now firing people would experience problems next year when the economy improves,” Goodwin says.

“These companies will have no choice but to start rehiring then at higher costs,” he predicted. During the 1998 economic downturn, a US company swiftly laid off 3,500 people to cut costs, he recalls. When the economy began to recover a few years later, it took that same company 18 months to re-hire the people it needed and at much higher costs than before.

Because of the difference in corporate cultures, European and Chinese companies tend to follow a much more conservative approach in cost control than their US counterparts. They do not offer big-time salaries to compete for talents, but at the same time they also do not resort to massive layoffs when they encounter bumps, says Goodwin.

His advice to foreign companies in China is to save costs by speeding up the process of localization. Companies should hire more Chinese managers and professionals rather than bring people from their own countries. The quality of the Chinese management talent, especially those who have worked in foreign companies has improved rapidly in the past three years, he adds.

With the knowledge and cultural gap narrowing, localization is only a simple matter of economics, he says. “Foreign experts may cost the company 300 to 400 dollars every month apart from costs related to accommodation, car, driver and children’s education. In contrast, hiring Chinese staff will not cost companies the extra expenditure, says Goodwin.

CapitaLand, the Singapore-based investment and real-estate firm is one of the companies that has followed the localization route. “In 2009, we will be hiring even more local talent,” says Liew Mun Leong, CEO of CapitaLand. The company’s target is to eventually have a 100 percent Chinese management team.

“It is very difficult for a foreigner to understand Chinese culture.

So the best way is to hire executives locally,” says Liew.

Opportunity beckons

Goodwin says the small- to medium-sized Chinese firms should now take the opportunity to grab whatever talents they can get. Antal has over 600 clients in China and of these 35 percent are local companies.

Chinese companies that acquire foreign companies could also encounter talent challenges like when Lenovo took over the PC business of IBM.

But Goodwin says, such problems can be solved more easily. “In the next six months, when Chinese companies enter overseas markets, they will see a veritable talent pool of directors, managers and even CEOs from western companies to choose from due to the recession. The Chinese firms can hire them for overseas development as they have better chances to take over struggling US companies,” he says.

“If the financial crisis had not happened, the smaller companies would never have been able to compete with big corporations for top managers,” Goodwin says. “Now is the best time for them to tap the market for talent.”

The moot question, however, is how to retain the hired talent when the economy starts growing again. Goodwin feels this is not a major deterrent as the small companies can also grow. “Small firms would become mid-sized and they in turn will become big.

The talent hired by small and mid-sized companies would also scale up the ladder in tandem with the firms and hence remain loyal to their employers.

“As long as the talent feels satisfied with their job and get paid well there is no reason for them to leave for bigger companies,” says Goodwin.

He adds that it would be prudent for companies that are planning to enter the Chinese market to hire talent locally.

“With US companies laying off people, it would be the right time for other foreign firms to hire people from the Chinese talent market,” says Goodwin. He cites the example of myweather.com, a meteorologic solution company that is planning to hire local talent for its business expansion.